One thing has become clear over the last month or so: Hillary Clinton has done a better job in moving the needle in “battleground” states. Whether it be FL or OH or PA or VA or CO or NH, Clinton has been able to take these states from tossups to get them to move into her column.
There have only been 6 state polls since the last update three of which moved the forecast:
- Two OH Polls (Clinton +6 and Clinton +4) move the state from tossup to lean D
- a MO poll (Trump +1) moves state from likely R to lean R (prior polls are Clinton +1 and Trump +2; State was once solid R with a double digit lead for Trump)
The above polls moved the forecast from 335-203 to the current 341-197, which is the largest to date Clinton lead.
Other polls in the period:
- IA poll tie confirms state as tossup
- VA Poll Clinton +16 confirms state as solid D
- UT poll Trump +15 confirms state as solid R
With the removal of OH from list of tossups, we are now down to 4:
- AZ
- GA
- IA
- NV
Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
- CO
- FL
- NC
- NH
- OH
- PA
- VA
- WI
The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Click here for running list of forecast changes
Click here for results from last 5 elections
Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
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