Updated Electoral Forecast: FL, VA, and MI Help Clinton Reach New High; Trump Solidifies Lead in IN

Eleven polls have been released over the last three days.  Five of these polls moved the forecast for their states:

  • FL Poll Clinton +9 moves state from lean D to likely D
  • 2 VA Polls Clinton +7 and +11  move state from likely D to solid D
  • IN poll Trump +11 moves state from likely R to solid R
  • MI Poll Clinton +11 moves state from likely D to solid D

The above changed the forecast from the previous 329-209 Clinton to the current 335-203 Clinton.  This is the largest lead since the start of the forecast in the beginning of May.

Other polls during the period:

  • TX Poll Trump +6 confirms state as solid R
  • CO Poll Clinton +8 confirms state as solid D
  • IA Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup
  • first MS poll Trump +13 confirms state as solid R
  • GA poll tie confirms state as tossup
  • NV Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup

The current tossup states are:

  • AZ
  • GA
  • IA
  • NV
  • OH

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

  • CO
  • FL
  • NC
  • NH
  • PA
  • VA
  • WI

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

electoral trend 8-19-16

 

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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