It’s been a week since Donald Trump caught Hillary Clinton in the poll of polls (and passed her in several polls). Since then the trend has reversed with Clinton receiving a bump from the DNC and Trump being involved in a controversies with the Khan family and his views on Ukraine and Russia.
Clinton has won the 5 reputable polls taken since the start of the DNC, with the two biggest wins coming in the two polls post the DNC and the start of the Khan controversy.
The poll of polls has her now leading by 5.1% (46.4% to 41.3%), her biggest lead since 6/27.
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls used in the tracking:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Click here for running list of forecast changes
Click here for results from last 5 elections
Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
Methodology:
- Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
- Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
- Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
- Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
- For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
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