In the last three weeks, Donald Trump has caught and passed Hillary Clinton in most national polls. That, however, has not translated to Trump closing the gap on Clinton from an electoral college perspective.
Trump seems to have gained on Clinton in states that are solid D (Example closing the gap in CA from +30 Clinton to +16 Clinton) but not in battleground states like PA (latest poll shows Clinton +9)
Since the last update, there were three states that showed movement:
- A GA poll of Trump +2 moved the state from likely R to lean R. The previous 2 polls were Trump +7 and Trump +3 for an average of Trump +4
- A PA poll of Clinton +9 moved the state from tossup to lean D. The previous two polls were Trump +6 and Clinton +8 for an average of Clinton +4. With Clinton leading the last two polls, it’s clear she has momentum in the state.
- Two MO polls came out. The first confirmed Trump +10 moving the state from likely R to solid R. The second was a surprise with Clinton +1. That was enough to move the state back from solid R to likely R.
The above moved the forecast from the previous 298-240 Clinton to the current 305-233 Clinton. The 72 point lead is the largest since 7/12.
Other polls during the period:
- ID Poll Trump +21 confirms state as solid R
- NH Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as lean D
- 2 OH Poll tie confirms state as tossup
- MI Poll Clinton +6 confirms state as lean D
- NV Poll Trump +5 confirms state as tossup
- KS Poll Trump +17 confirms state as solid R
- VT poll Clinton +22 confirms state as solid D
- DE poll Clinton +10 confirms state as solid D
- OR poll Clinton +3 confirms state as lean D
- CA Poll Clinton +16 confirms state as solid D
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections
Click here for running list of forecast changes
Click here for results from last 5 elections
Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
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