July has been a good month for Trump as far as the state polls which has allowed him to close the gap from an electoral college forecast perspective.
33 polls have been released so far in July (and 38 since the last update). While many of these polls merely confirmed earlier forecasts, they did cause the forecasts for six states to shift:
- FL: started the month as lean D but 4 polls initially moved the state to tossup, then to lean R, back to the current tossup. The 4 polls include a tie, 2 polls with Trump +5, and the latest with Clinton +5. Given the high number of electoral votes (29, 3rd highest), this will be a must win state for both candidates.
- PA: started the month as out as lean D but 3 polls (Clinton +2, Trump +6, Clinton +8) have moved it to a tossup. It will be another must tossup state with its 20 electoral votes.
- CO moves from tossup to lean D to likely D as a total of 5 polls help add color to the state (Clinton +7, +1, +9, +13, +6)
- MO moves from lean R to likely R based on a Trump +10 poll
- NC moves from tossup to lean D as poll has Clinton +6
- MI from likely D to lean D as 3 polls show a smaller Clinton lead (+3, +3, +5) than before
All these polls have moved the forecast from 314 to 224 to begin the month (90 point Clinton lead) to the current 298 to 240 forecast (58 point lead). Trump got as close as 291 to 247 (44 points) in the middle of the month when FL temporarily moved to lean R. That was the closest he has been.
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections
Click here for running list of forecast changes
Click here for results from last 5 elections
Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
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