The last few months have been very quiet on the Democratic side with Hillary Clinton continuing to lead the overall race with a 38.4% probability.  Her closest Democratic competitors have continued to be Elizabeth Warren (2.6%, 7th overall), Joe Biden (1.8%, 9th), Andrew Cuomo (1.3% 11th), and Martin O’Malley (1.3%, 12th).

The Republican side, in the mean time, has seen a lot of changes.

Mitt Romney has seen the biggest movements.  Three months ago he was in 9th place.  He quickly vaulted to 5th place two weeks ago due to speculation on him running.  The bubble quickly popped as he decided not to run, resulting in this week’s 8th place standing.

This week’s big mover was Scott Walker.  Less than a month ago he was in 11th place but he started gaining momentum and came in last week at 9th place.  This past week saw a dramatic rise from Walker as different polls have led some to anoint him the campaign’s first “it” candidate. He is now 6th overall increasing his probability from 1.5% two weeks ago to 2.7% this week.

There were two other big movers on the Republican side.

Mike Huckabee rose from 27th to 22nd as some controversial gay marriage comments he made this week may have helped him with the social conservative part of the Republican base.

Ben Carson is moving toward the top 25 as well.  He was 43rd only two weeks ago and is now in 27th place.

Here is the entire field with the probabilities.

 

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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