The betting odds seems to have stabilized after last week’s reaction to the Comey letter. Hillary Clinton’s odds actually improved to 71.8% up from 0.8% last Saturday morning. It’s interesting that the betting odds of winning seem to be higher for Clinton than most models predict (fivethiryeight model is at 64.5%). Donald Trump held fairly steady down 0.1% to 25.3%. The current lead of 46.4% is down from 61.5% just two weeks ago. The big mover on the week was Bernie Sanders, who spiked last week on news of the letter and has come down from that 1.2% to 0.5%.
Here are the current odds:
Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government increased as the odds of the Democrats controlling the government took a dive.
The odds of the Republicans keeping the House improved to to a new high of 94.9%. Previous high was 90.0% in the middle of September.
The odds of the Democrats straight up capturing the Senate declined from 51.1% to 41.3%. That is more than a 20% decline in just two weeks the lowest since the end of September. The odds of a split Senate increased slightly to 21.1% from 18.1%. This puts the odds of the Republicans maintaining control at 37.7%, a big jump from two weeks ago when it was at a low of 20.5% and the highest since September 24.
The fact that the Republican improved their odds of winning the House and Senate was reflected in the odds of controlling the government which spiked from 11.5% two weeks ago to 22.0%, the highest since October 1. The odds of the Democrats winning all three got cut in half from 15% to 7.5%, a new low. That is a function of the Republicans having a near lock on winning the House. The most likely scenario continues to be a split government: the odds increased from 67.5% to 70.5%.
Here is a trend of those odds:
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