The Comey letter seems to have had a big impact on the race so far as there has been a big swing in state polls taken since. The biggest recent changes include:
- GA Poll Trump +7 which moves state from lean R to likely R (previous polls ranged from Trump +1 to Trump +4)
- NC Poll Trump +2 moves state from lean D to tossup (Previous polls ranged from Clinton +2 to Clinton +6)
- 2 PA polls moves state from likely D to lean D (Previous polls ranged from Clinton +5 to Clinton +8)
- NV Poll Trump +4 (previous polls ranged from tie to Clinton +4)
- CO Poll Clinton +1 (previous polls ranged from Clinton +3 to Clinton +11)
These gains have closed the forecast gap to the current 311 to 222 with clear momentum behind Trump. It will be interesting to monitor the next few days to see if the emails remain the top story or if something else comes up to fill the news. Clinton’s lead is now the lowest since 10/3 (Pre second debate).
The latest polls push have increased the list of tossups:
- AZ
- FL
- IA
- NC
- NV
- OH
Many once thought to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
- CO
- NH
- PA
- VA
- WI
Trump will need all of the current tossups plus the majority of the once thought to be tossups that are now forecast as Clinton states to win this race.
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
- Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
- Click here for running list of forecast changes
- Click here for results from last 5 elections
- Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
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