Updated Electoral Forecast: Trump Gains Ground in PA, MO; Clinton Gains Ground in NC, IA, VA, OH, CO Resulting in Slight Increase in Lead

21 Polls were released in the last three days with 14 of them impacting the forecast.  Both Trump and Clinton made gains in battleground states with a slight overall advantage to Clinton.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

  • 2 NC Polls both Clinton +1 moved state from lean R to tossup
  • IA Poll tie moves state from likely R to lean R
  • 2 VA Polls Clinton +8, +6 move state from likely D to solid D
  • 4 PA Polls (Clinton +2, +1, +2, +3) move state from likely D to lean D
  • MO Poll Trump +9 moves state from likely R to solid R
  • OH Poll Trump +1 moves state from likely R to lean R
  • 3 CO Polls (Trump +1, +1, Clinton +1) moves state from lean R to tossup

The above moved the forecast from the previous 284-254 to the current 289-249.  This is the first gain Clinton has made in the electoral forecast in nearly a month when she led by 144 points on 8/23.

Here are the other polls:

  • NY Poll Clinton +21 confirms state as solid D
  • MA Poll Clinton +13 confirms state as solid D
  • LA Poll Trump +10 confirms state as solid R
  • MN Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as likely D
  • FL Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as tossup
  • UT Poll Trump +9 confirms state as solid R
  • ME Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as lean D

Here is the list of current tossups:

  • AZ
  • CO
  • FL
  • NC

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

  • NH
  • PA
  • VA
  • WI

Trump has asserted himself in other thought to be tossups including:

  • OH
  • IA
  • NV

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

electoral-forecast-trend-9-28

  • Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
  • Click here for running list of forecast changes
  • Click here for results from last 5 elections
  • Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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