21 Polls were released in the last three days with 14 of them impacting the forecast. Both Trump and Clinton made gains in battleground states with a slight overall advantage to Clinton.
Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:
- 2 NC Polls both Clinton +1 moved state from lean R to tossup
- IA Poll tie moves state from likely R to lean R
- 2 VA Polls Clinton +8, +6 move state from likely D to solid D
- 4 PA Polls (Clinton +2, +1, +2, +3) move state from likely D to lean D
- MO Poll Trump +9 moves state from likely R to solid R
- OH Poll Trump +1 moves state from likely R to lean R
- 3 CO Polls (Trump +1, +1, Clinton +1) moves state from lean R to tossup
The above moved the forecast from the previous 284-254 to the current 289-249. This is the first gain Clinton has made in the electoral forecast in nearly a month when she led by 144 points on 8/23.
Here are the other polls:
- NY Poll Clinton +21 confirms state as solid D
- MA Poll Clinton +13 confirms state as solid D
- LA Poll Trump +10 confirms state as solid R
- MN Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as likely D
- FL Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as tossup
- UT Poll Trump +9 confirms state as solid R
- ME Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as lean D
Here is the list of current tossups:
- AZ
- CO
- FL
- NC
Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
- NH
- PA
- VA
- WI
Trump has asserted himself in other thought to be tossups including:
- OH
- IA
- NV
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
- Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
- Click here for running list of forecast changes
- Click here for results from last 5 elections
- Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
Views – 522