Hillary Clinton’s episode with pneumonia helped Donald Trump close the gap, and raised the odds of her dropping out.  That is evidenced by Tim Kaine returning to the odds for the first time since December 2015.

Clinton dropped from 63.9% to 56.5%.  That is the fourth drop in a row and the lowest she has been since February of 2016.  Donald Trump picked up almost half of her drop increasing to 34.7% which is his all time high.  The 21.8% gap between the two is also the lowest it has been.

As a result of speculation that Clinton may drop out, the odds of three other Democrats increased.  Bernie Sanders improved his odds from 1.7% to 2.6%.  Even with that big increase, he dropped from 3rd place to 4th place as Joe Biden increased from 1.2% to 3.1%.  Tim Kaine was the third Democrat to make a jump as he went from not being on the board to 1.4%.

With Trump strengthening, the odds of  last minute Republican replacements dropped: Paul Ryan to 0.7%, Mitt Romney to 0.2%, and John Kasich to 0.2%.

Here is the full list of odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government decreased as odds of a Republican controlled government increased.

The Republicans have always had a high probability of keeping the House, and that has increased in each of the last four weeks.  It is now at 90.0% up from 84.7% four weeks ago.

The biggest turnaround this week is on the Senate odds.  The Democrats still hold the edge for the Senate but the odds of them winning it straight are now under 50%, dropping from 53.1% to 42.0%.  The Republican odds of winning it jumped from 25.8% to 36.5%.  The odds of a 50/50 Senate where the VP breaks ties stayed fairly flat at 21.5%.

The jump in odds for the Republicans taking the Senate and Presidency improved the odds of the Republicans controlling the government from 24.5% to 31.0%, a new high.  The odds of the Democrats controlling it dropped to 11%.  This will be extremely low as long as the Republicans have an 85%+ chance of winning the House.  The odds of a split government dropped to 58.0%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

 

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