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Updated Electoral Forecast: Trump Takes OH, GA, and IA; Shrinks Clinton’s Lead to Smallest since Mid July

Trump’s continued momentum in the last month has now resulted in major gains in some of the major battleground states like OH, GA, and IA.

25 polls were released since the last update with 8 having an impact on the forecast

 

  • 2 GA Polls (Trump +6 and +4) swung the traditionally Republican state back to Republicans.  It moved from tossup all the way to liekly R.
  • 3 OH Polls (Trump +5, +5, +3) moved the important battleground state from tossup all the way to likely R
  • IA poll (Trump +8) moved the state from tossup to lean R
  • CO poll (Trump +4) moves state from likely D to lean D
  • ME poll (Clinton +3) moves state from solid D to likely D

The above polls moved the forecast from 311-227  all the way to the current 294-244.  The 50 point lead is Clinton’s smallest since the middle of July 44 point lead (her lowest this campaign).

Here are the polls that did not move the forecast:

  • AR Poll Trump +28 confirms state as solid R
  • TX Poll Trump +7 confirms state as solid R
  • NC Poll tie confirms state as tossup
  • 2 VA Polls (Clinton +3 +6) confirm  lean D
  • MO poll Trump +13 confirms state as likely R
  • MI Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as likely D
  • KS Poll Trump +12 confirms state  solid R
  • SC Poll Trump +15 confirms state as likely R
  • MA Poll Clinton +25 confirms states as solid D
  • NV Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup
  • FL Poll Trump +3 confirms state as tossup
  • CA Poll Clinton +25 confirms state as solid D
  • TX Poll Trump +6 confirms state as solid R
  • UT Poll Trump +15 confirms state as solid R
  • MI Poll Clinton +6 confirms state as likely D
  • FL Poll Trump +4 confirms state as tossup

Here is the list of current tossups:

  • AZ
  • FL
  • NC
  • NV

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

  • CO
  • NH
  • PA
  • VA
  • WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

electoral-forecast-trend-9-16-16

 

  • Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
  • Click here for running list of forecast changes
  • Click here for results from last 5 elections
  • Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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