For a second straight week Harris’ odds dropped and Biden’s improved. They are now fairly close to each other. Harris’ odds dropped from 4.66X to 4.83X, her lowest since we started tracking the odds 4 weeks ago. Joe Biden’s odds improved from 5.48X to 4.98X, a new high for 2024.
Donald Trump’s odds were flat to last week at 7.65X, his second highest behind the 7.48X he had on 11/14.
The one notable change is Nikki Haley jumping over Mike Pence for 4th place. Her odds improved from 13.6X to 13.0X, a new high for her. Mike Pence’s odds tanked dropping from 13.1X to 15.3X, a new low for 2024.
There was an interesting poll of Republicans that showed:
- 53% of Republicans and GOP primary voting independents would pick Trump in a field of 13 potential challengers
- Pence was second with 9%
- Sens. Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney, and Nikki Haley each got less than 5 percent support
- If Trump is taken out of the field, the field is tied between Pence and Donald Trump Jr. Interestingly, Trump Jr. is no where on the boards we are tracking (at least yet), where as his sister is in 8th place.
Here are the full odds:
