The betting odds for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump remained flat to last week. Biden is at 1.45X, just shy of his all time high set on 10/10 at 1.44X. Trump is at 2.76X, tied for his lowest in 3 weeks, and 3rd lowest since March 2019. The implied probability remained flat at 65.6%. That compares to 73.9% for Clinton the weekend before the elections in 2016. Translation: The betting public is more shy of believing the polls than they were 4 years ago.

Here are the odds:

Lots of last minute updates to the Electoral projections, all of which we went Biden’s way. The average of the current forecasts is now at an all time high for Biden at 349 to 189. That is up from last week’s 337 to 201.

Taking the polls and the leader in each state gets us to the following forecast:

How does the 351 in the above or the average of the models compare to 4 years ago? Our final projection 4 years ago was Clinton 308 and Trump 230. Translation: While the betting public is less sure about the outcome, the models/polls are more sure. Both however, have Biden in the lead.

Time to see what happens. This is the last post for this cycle. We will be back once odds for 2024 are out, hopefully shortly.

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