Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 1.91X to 1.98X, their lowest in 2020. They had been in a tight range the previous 8 weeks between 1.88X and 1.93X. As a result, Joe Biden’s odds were the mirror image improving from 2.26X to 2.06X. The 2.06X is an all time high for Biden. The previous high was in the middle of March at 2.12X. Trump’s edge in a one on one matchup is now down from 54.1% to 51.0%
Here are the full odds:
On the VP side, the demonstrations and unrest resulting from the death of George Floyd seem to be driving the odds. Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar’s odds sank from 5.3X to 16.7X. On the other hand, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has upped her profile, and as a result, made her debut at 16.7X. Val Demings continued to improve jumping from last week’s 11.1X to this week’s 7.7X. Warren also saw a jump this week from 9.1X to 7.7X as multiple media outlets proclaimed her the front-runner. Kamala Harris, however, continued to be the odds favorite, improving her odds to 2.8X. She has led the odds every week since we started tracking them seven weeks ago.
Here are the full odds:
The polls didn’t change the overall forecast although some were tighter than expected. Trump has made Florida and Minnesota tighter than previous polls while Biden has made Utah and Missouri tighter. It’s unknown which of these are true tightenings vs. just outlier polls. Future polls will answer that. For now here are the polls:
- Minnesota Biden +5 (keep to Biden)
- Maryland Biden +24 (Keep to Biden)
- Utah Trump +3 (Keep to Trump, tighter than expected after previous double digit leads)
- New York Biden +25 (keep to Biden)
- Missouri Trump +4 (Keep to Trump, tighter than expected)
- Florida Biden +1 (tighter than expected, keep to Biden as previous polls were +6, +3, +4)
We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:
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