Trump’s odds lead over Biden at a 4-week low; Michigan and Pennsylvania polls continue to show Biden ahead; Obama’s odds for top spot jump as talk of her as a VP candidate heat up; Top two VP candidates remain Harris and Klobuchar

Trump’s odds dropped from 1.88X to 1.92X, his lowest odds in four weeks. The odds are finally starting to catch up to the recent drops in his favorability: dropped from 44.0% last week to 43.5% this week. They were at a high of 45.8% three weeks ago when they started dropping.

Joe Biden’s odds improved from 2.19X to 2.13X, his highest since the middle of March. His relative odds against Trump improved from 46.2% to 47.3%, a 4 week high.

The biggest move interestingly was in Michelle Obama’s odds as they improved from 113.2X to 94.2X, her highest since December 2019. There was numerous speculation of her being a possible VP candidate, including in an interview with Biden’s wife.

Here are the full odds:

The speculation is growing on the possible VP candidates for Biden. The odds would suggest there’s a 50% chance of either Harris or Klobuchar, and 50% of all other candidates.

Here are the full odds:

One the state polling side, Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll showing Tie in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +4 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +3 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Mich
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Penn
  • Poll showing Biden +6 in Penn
  • Poll showing Trump +5 in Tex

We’re still keeping Florida as a tossup. The polls reinforced the view on Mich and Penn going to Biden.

As a result projections remained the same as last week of 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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