Donald Trump’s odds reached another new high this week with the conclusion of the Senate trial. They improved from 1.68X to 1.59X. Over the last 12 weeks, they have improved from 2.28X, over a 40% improvement. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved from 54.5% to 56.6%, this as their combined odds dropped from 2.02X to 2.06X.

For the Democrats, there were two critical events impacting the odds: the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire debate.

One of the big winners on the week did not participate in either. Michael Bloomberg’s odds shot up to 8.0X from 11.4X. This is his 5th straight new high. He chose not to participate in the Iowa Caucus instead deciding to focus on Super Tuesday and he chose not to accept any donations, making him ineligible for one of the criteria for the debate. The improvement in odds along with Biden faltering, allowed him to jump the former VP for third place.

The other big winner for the Democrats was Pete Buttigieg. He beat Sanders by the slimmest of margins in the Iowa Caucus. Buttigieg’s odds reversed a 9 weeks decline in odds that took him from 9.0X to 45.7X. He nearly tripled his odds this week improving to 15.2X, his highest in 7 weeks, passing both Yang and Warren.

Bernie Sanders came into the week with the momentum and the lead. Although his momentum may have slowed (given the improvements from Buttigieg and Bloomberg), he remains solidly in the lead for the Democrats. His odds dropped slightly from 5.15X to 5.30X.

The biggest drop of the week was Joe Biden. He came in 4th place in the Iowa caucus and will likely do the same in New Hampshire. His odds were nearly cut in half from 6.2X to 12.7X. It will be interesting to see if/how his support goes to other “moderates” in Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar.

Speaking of Klobuchar, the Senator got plenty of positive reviews for both Iowa Caucus results as well as her debate performance. Unfortunately that does not seem to be enough with so many candidates in front of her. Her odds dropped from 79.4X to 122.7X. It will be interesting to watch if there is pressure on her to drop out to help consolidate the delegates for the “moderate” candidates. The same may start occurring with Warren to consolidate the “Progressive” vote with Bernie, although with less candidates there and with Bernie ahead, that pressure will be less for the time being.

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds of the top 20:

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