Donald Trump’s odds remained at their all time high of 1.59X for the third straight week as the Democrats used the NV debate to turn their attacks on each other, mostly Bloomberg. As for the top 5 Democrats their odds improved slightly from 2.13X to 2.09X as Warren came back to life. This gives Trump an implied likelihood of beating the top 5 of 56.7%, down slightly from last week’s all time high of 57.2%.
It was an eventful week for the Democrats that included Michael Bloomberg’s first debate (coincidentally the most watched Democratic debate in history) and that ends in tonight’s NV caucus.
Coming into the week, Michael Bloomberg was the hottest candidate having jumped from 6th place to 2nd place in a mere 7 weeks and having tripled his odds over that period. Bloomberg managed to qualify for the NV debate last minute and chose to take part in it, even though he is not taking part in the caucus. Perhaps that was a mistake, as the other Democrats piled on the former NYC Mayor. On the other hand, perhaps it was a good strategy to get that out of the way before the next debate, which will be the last before Super Tuesday, Bloomberg’s big target all along. His odds dropped from 5.16X to 7.58X, still his second highest ever.
There seemed to be two big beneficiaries from Bloomberg’s fall. Bernie Sanders’ odds rose from 5.67X to 4.22X, which was enough for him to jump over Bloomberg for second overall, and also set a new personal high for the Senator.
The other big winner was Elizabeth Warren. The Senator was “on fire” during the debate, but some wonder if it’s a bit too late. Her odds showed a big rebound from 93.2X to 53.4X. That is a huge jump, but keeping things in perspective, she was at 38.3X the week before just prior to the NH Primary.
Joe Biden was for once not the target of his rivals, and that seemed to help. His odds improved from 22.3 to 20.3. He remains in 4th place.
Amy Klobuchar will need to surprise in either NV or SC or her campaign may run out of time, air, money…. Her odds dropped from 43.9X to 86.7X. She is still above the 122.7X she was at before the NH primary, but she will need to show she can sustain momentum from NH in NV and/or SC, two difficult states for her.
Here is a trend of the top candidates and the odds for the field:
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