Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week as they are now at an even 2.00X surpassing the previous high of 2.02X set 4 weeks ago. We started tracking his odds compared to the next 5 Democrats combined. His implied likelihood increased from 48.1% last week to 49.0% as the top 5 Democrats decreased from a combined 1.88X to 1.92X.

Kamala Harris continued with her momentum coming out of the first debate as she improved from 7.53X to 6.33X. That combined with Biden’s continued struggles allowed her to jump over the VP to be the leading Democratic candidate as far the odds are concerned. The odds are just reflecting the post debate polls.

The other pair that swapped positions last week continued their recent trend. Warren continued to improve moving from from 9.7X to 9.4X, putting her in striking distance of Biden. These are all new highs for Warren. Bernie Sanders continues to lose momentum dropping from 12.8X to 14.0X. These are his lowest odds since the middle of February.

The under the radar candidate of the moment seems to be Julian Castro. He had one of the top debate performances and polls show it. His odds improved this week from 115.1X to 110.6X allowing him to jump to 14th place. He has improved the last 5 weeks. At that time he was in 30th place at 147.7X.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

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