The trend of Trump and Biden reaching new highs is in its sixth week now.
Donald Trunp’s odds improved from last week’s high of 2.10X to 2.04X this week. His odds have now improved the last 13 weeks (over 90 days). They were are at 2.93X at that time. That is an improvement of over 40% over that time.
Joe Biden’s streak isn’t as long since it wasn’t known 13 weeks ago if he would even run. In half the time (last 6 weeks), he has improved from 10.7X to 5.57X, which is over a 90% improvement. The majority of thinking now is it’s Joe Biden’s nomination to lose.
7 out of the next 10 competitors saw a decrease in odds including the third place candidate, Bernie Sanders. He has now dropped for five straight weeks (basically the same time period as Biden has been up). Sanders dropped this week from 7.69X to 8.35X. He was at 6.74X when the streak started. This is his lowest in 12 weeks. The challenge for Sanders is beyond his base his unfavorability is one of the worst (41% fav 48% unfav), although that is still better than the President’s (38%/57%)
The coldest name has been Beto O’Rourke. He dropped this week from 24.4X to 27.6X. Beto has dropped for 9 straight weeks. He was at 8.9X and in 5th place then. He dropped this week to 8th place behind Andrew Yang. Beto tried to reboot his campaign this week with a CNN townhall but hat was very poorly watched.
Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:
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