Donald Trump continued to close the electoral gap this week by moving some of the tossup states into his column, increasing his lead in some states, and narrowing the lead in some of the states that Hillary Clinton leads.
The biggest impact came in states that were tossup last week that now seem to be leaning towards Trump including:
- OH (Trump +5, +4, tie)
- NV (Trump +6, +4, tie)
- AZ (Trump +4, +5, +5)
- IA (Trump +1, +3, +7)
- NH (Trump +5, +2, tie)
States where Trump already leads and where he increased his odds included:
- Solidifying TX after his lead shrank. The last three polls have him up +13, +9, and +14
- Moving UT from lean R to solid R with the last three polls coming in at +6, +12, +5
States that Clinton leads in where Trump has narrowed her gap:
- VA (Clinton +4, +7, +5)
- ME (Clinton +4, +5, +11)
- MI (Clinton +3, +4, +5)
- NM (Clinton +4, +13, +3)
Clinton made some progress in two must win states for Trump. It looks like she might have a slight edge in FL which was previously a tossup given the last three polls (Clinton +2, +1, +4). She has also narrowed his lead in once solid R GA (Trump +1, +4, +2).
These gains have closed the forecast gap to the current 300 to 238 from the previous 311 to 222. Trump got as close as 294-244 on 11/2. That was the closest he has been since 9/29 (289-249).
The list of tossups has shrunk from last week’s 5 to just 1 (NC)
Many once thought to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
- CO
- FL
- PA
- VA
- WI
Trump has done a great job over the last week to swing some of the tossup states to his side including:
- IA
- NV
- OH
- NH
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
- Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
- Click here for running list of forecast changes
- Click here for results from last 5 elections
- Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
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