Hillary Clinton’s odds showed a big rebound this week following the first debate.  The odds now reflect a 65.3% chance of Clinton winning, a 6.3% jump from last week’s 59.0%.  Approximately 2/3 of that gain came at the expense of Trump who dropped from 34.5% to 30.1%, his lowest in 4 weeks.  The other part of the gain came at the expense of other Democratic possibilities who bounced up two weeks ago with Clinton’s pneumonia episode.  The concerns over her health seem to have subsided and pulled the odds for Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Tim Kaine down with them.

Here is the full list of odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government reached a new high as the Republican odds of control take a hit with Trump’s decline, and the Democrats are not likely to have control since their probability of winning the house remains very low.

The Republican odds of winning the House took a small dip this week decreasing from 88.6% to 86.5%.  This is the second straight decline, but is still above where it was in August.

The odds of the Democrats capturing the Senate improved from 40.8% to 46.1%.  The odds of a split Senate dropped from 20.6% to 19.8%.  This puts the odds of the Republicans winning it at 34.1%, the lowest it has been in three weeks.

The  Republican decrease in odds in all three  areas decreased the odds of a Republican controlled government from 28% to 22.5%. That is the lowest it has been in five weeks. Conversely the gains on the Democratic side led to an increase in them controlling the government from 12.5% to 14%.  The decline in the Republican odds was much larger than the Democrats gain, meaning the odds of a split government increased to 63.5% from 59.5%, a new high (Previous high 61.5% three weeks ago)

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

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