The updated poll of polls through Wednesday shows Donald Trump has cut Clinton’s lead over the last 12 days from 6.0% to 4.7%.  That is Clinton’s smallest lead since October 9th, which is the Sunday of the second debate and a couple of days after the release of the Access Hollywood video.  That period saw a big increase in the lead for Clinton as it went from 3.5% on that Friday to 5.9% by Tuesday.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

 

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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