A week ago Donald Trump was closing the lead on Hillary Clinton when the Access Hollywood video was released. Since then it’s been a bumpy ride. Through that tape and the debate shortly after, Clinton has expanded her lead in the poll of polls from 3.3% to 5.1%. This is through Monday. There aren’t enough polls yet for Tuesday-Thursday. It’s important to point out that one of the polls used, the Rasmussen Report, is now showing Trump in the lead. It polls 500 likely voters every day and releases the numbers on a 3 day rolling basis.
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Click here for running list of forecast changes
Click here for results from last 5 elections
Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
Methodology:
- Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
- Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
- Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
- Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
- For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
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