Updated Electoral Forecast: Trump Gains in OH Moving State to Tossup; Clinton Solidifies Lead in WI and Weakens Trump Lead in TX, IN, UT, MO

28 state polls have been released since the last update with 13 of them impacting the forecast.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

  • 2 OH Polls (Clinton +2, Trump +1) move state from lean D to tossup
  • 2 WI Polls (Clinton +7, +7) move state from likely D to solid D
  • TX Poll Trump +4 moves state from solid R to likely R
  • IN Poll Trump +4 moves state from solid R to likely R
  • 2 UT Polls tie, Trump +6 move state from solid R to likely R
  • 2 MO Polls Trump +5, +5 move state from solid R to likely R
  • 2 VA Polls Clinton +9, +3 move state from solid D to likely D
  • ME Poll Clinton +8 moves state from lean D to likely D

Trump’s gains in OH and VA were enough to offset Clinton’s gains in the other 8 states, leaving the forecast the same as the previous 326-212.  The race has been in that range for the last 7 days.

Here are the other polls:

  • 4 NC Polls (Clinton +1, +4, +2, +4) confirm state as lean D
  • GA Poll Trump +6 confirms state as likely R
  • 2 PA Polls Clinton +9, +4 confirm state as solid D
  • 2 MI Polls Clinton +10, +11 confirm state as solid D
  • 2 NH Polls Clinton +3 , +6 confirms state as likely D
  • 2 FL Polls Clinton +4, +3 confirms state as lean D
  • NV Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup
  • OR Poll Clinton +10 confirms state as solid D

The latest polls push have added OH to the list of tossups:

  • AZ
  • NV
  • OH

Many once thought to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

  • CO
  • FL
  • NC
  • NH
  • PA
  • VA
  • WI

Trump is leading in just one  thought to be tossup:

  • IA

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

electoral-forecast-trend-10-16-16

  • Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
  • Click here for running list of forecast changes
  • Click here for results from last 5 elections
  • Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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