Updated Electoral Forecast: Clinton with Largest Lead Since End of August with Gains in OH, PA. Trump Gains in CO and NV

30 state polls have been released since the last update with 12 of them impacting the forecast.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

  • 3 OH Poll (Clinton +1, +2, +4) moves state from lean R to lean D
  • 2 PA Polls (Clinton +12, +8) move state from likely D to solid D
  • Initial AK poll Trump +3 moves state from solid R to likely R
  • CO Poll tie moves state from likely D to lean D
  • WA Poll Clinton +16 moves state from likely D to solid D
  • MI Poll Clinton +11 moves state from likely D to solid D
  • NV Poll tie moves state from lean D to tossup
  • RI Poll Clinton +20 moves state from likely D to solid D
  • NM Poll Clinton +13 moves state from likely D to solid D

The above moved the forecast from the previous 315-223 to the current 326-212.  This current 114 point lead is Clinton’s largest since 8/31 when she led by 116.

Here are the other polls:

  • 4 FL Polls Clinton +2, +2, +3, Trump +1 confirm state as lean D
  • IA Poll Trump +4 confirms state as likely R
  • VA Poll Clinton +12 confirms state as solid D
  • OR Poll Clinton +8 confirms state as solid D
  • 2 WI Poll Clinton +8, +4 confirms state as solid D
  • NH Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as likely D
  • IN Poll Trump +5 confirms state as solid R
  • 2 AZ Polls Tie, Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup
  • TN Poll Trump +11 confirms state as solid R
  • MD Poll Clinton +36 confirms state as solid D
  • MA Poll Clinton +32 confirms state as solid D
  • NC Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as lean D
  • TX Poll Trump +7 confirms state as solid R

With many of the tossup states swinging Clinton’s way, we are down to two tossup states:

  • AZ
  • NV

Many once thought to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

  • CO
  • FL
  • NC
  • NH
  • OH
  • PA
  • VA
  • WI

Trump is leading in just one  thought to be tossup:

  • IA

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

electoral-forecast-trend-10-10-16

  • Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
  • Click here for running list of forecast changes
  • Click here for results from last 5 elections
  • Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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