Updated Election Odds: Trump Makes up Some Ground on Clinton; Republicans Improve House Odds; Democrats Improve Senate Odds

Donald Trump made up some ground in the betting odds over the last week improving from 16.7% to 17.6%.  Hillary Clinton declined from 80.3% to 79.1%.  The 61.5% margin is her second highest behind last week’s 63.6% margin.

Here is the full list of odds:

election-odds-10-22-16

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government declined as the Democrats saw an increase in their odds of capturing control.

After four straight weeks of declines, the odds of the Republicans maintaining the house improved from 79% to 83.2%.  This is the highest in three weeks.  The highest odds were five weeks ago at 90.0%.

The odds of the Democrats straight up capturing the Senate improved for the fourth straight week from 55.7% to 62.3%. This is a new high eclipsing the 55.9% from eight weeks ago.  The odds of a split Senate declined from 19.6% to 17.3%  This puts the odds of the Republicans maintaining control at just 20.5%,  a new low. The previous low was on 8/27 at 23.2%.

The Republican odds of winning the Presidency, House, and Senate, declined to a new low at 11.5%. That is a function of their declining chances of winning the Senate.  The odds of the Democrats winning all three also decreased, moving from 21% to 19%.  This breaks a 4 week streak of improvements, and comes as a result of the Republicans improving their odds of winning the house. This of course means the odds of  split government increased.  It is now at a new high of 70%, up from last week’s 65%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

election-government-odds-10-15-16

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 739