Updated Election Odds: Clinton Odds Increase; Gap vs. Trump Highest in 6 Weeks; Odds of Split Government at New High as Democrats Gain for House and Senate

Hillary Clinton continued to show momentum improving from 65.3% to 69.2%. These are the highest odds she has had in 6 weeks.  Her all time high was 8 weeks ago at 72.8%.  Donald Trump dropped from 30.1% to 26.7%.   This is his third decline in a row after peaking at 34.7% three weeks ago.

Here is the full list of odds:

election-odds-10-8-16

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government reached a new high for the second straight week, as the Republican odds slipped on all three fronts and the Democrat odds of winning the House remains very low.

The Republican odds of winning the House dips for a third straight week from 86.5% last week to 81.6%. These are the lowest odds we have seen.  The odds were at 90.0% just three weeks ago.

The odds of the Democrats straight up capturing the Senate improved from 46.1% to 50.7%.  The odds of a split Senate also increased from 19.8% to 21.1%  This puts the odds of the Republicans maintaining control at just 28.2%, the lowest it has been in four weeks.

The  Republican decrease in odds in all three  areas lowered the odds of a Republican controlled government from 22.5% to just 14%, the lowest of the year. Conversely the gains on the Democratic side led to an increase in them controlling the government from 14% to 17%, the highest they have been at since the end August. This is the first time the Democrats have higher odds of controlling all three parts of government since the middle of August.  The decline in the Republican odds was much larger than the Democrats gain, meaning the odds of a split government increased to another new high at 69.5% (previous high was 63.5% last week)

Here is a trend of those odds:

election-government-odds-10-8-16

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

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