We just had our second Friday October Surprise. The initial one was Donald Trump with the Access Hollywood tape.  His odds tanked in the weekend after.  This time around, it’s the FBI finding more emails to look into that have caused Hillary Clinton’s odds, as of Saturday morning, to take a nose dive.  Clinton’s odds sank from 79.1% to 70.9%.  Donald Trump rose from 17.6% to 25.4%.  These odds are at a similar place to where they stood the Saturday just after the release of the Access Hollywood tapes.  Trump’s odds only showed a small decline then but saw a substantial decline the week after as women came forward and the story stayed in the news.  We’ll see what happens as more details come out on these emails.

The other interesting thing to watch is the odds of other potential Democratic “candidates”.  Bernie Sanders’ odds doubled from 0.6% to 1.2%, Joe Biden increased from 0.5% to 0.8%, and Tim Kaine from 0.4% to 0.6%.  Odds of Pence winning on the other hand declined from 0.9% to 0.4% as pressure to drop out decreased off Trump.

Here are the current odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government declined as the Republicans saw a spike in the probability of them controlling the government.

The odds of the Republicans keeping the House improved to 89.8% from 83.2%.  This is the second highest they have been (highest at 90% on 9/17)

The odds of the Democrats straight up capturing the Senate declined from 62.3% to 51.1%. The odds of a split Senate increased slightly to 18.1% from 17.3%. This puts the odds of the Republicans maintaining control at 30.8%, a big jump from last week’s low of 20.5% and the highest since October 1.

The fact that the Republican improved their odds of winning the Presidency, House , and Senate was reflected in the odds of controlling the government which spiked from 11.5% to 17.5%, the highest in four weeks.  The odds of the Democrats winning all three decreased from 19% to 15% moving. The most likely scenario continues to be a split government which has a 2 out of 3 chance.

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

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