The presidential odds have changed dramatically over the last week when news of the Access Hollywood tape was just breaking.  Since then Clinton’s odds according to betting sites have improved to 80.3% while Donald Trump’s have declined 10% to 16.7%.

The 80.3% is Clinton’s highest of the election cycle.  The 16.7% is Trump’s lowest since the middle of April, a couple of weeks before he had wrapped up the nomination over Ted Cruz.

One thing to note: Paul Ryan has moved up to his highest odds  in five weeks as Trump’s odds have declined.  The odds are still less than 1% at 0.8%, but that is more than twice as much as Johnson and Stein combined.

Here is the full list of odds:

 

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government declined as the Democrats saw an increase in their odds of capturing control.

For the fourth straight week, Republican odds of maintaining control of the House declined, this time from 81.6% to 79%.  This is a new bottom after peaking just 4 weeks ago at 90.0%.

The odds of the Democrats straight up capturing the Senate improved from 50.7% to 55.7%.  The odds of a split Senate decreased from 21.1%% to 19.6%  This puts the odds of the Republicans maintaining control at just 24.7%, the lowest it has been in four weeks.

Oddly enough, despite declines in the Republican odds of winning the Presidency, House, and Senate, the odds of the Republicans winning control of the government remained flat at 14%. This is the lowest they have been and points to the fact that at this point, if Trump somehow wins the election, the Republicans will very likely win both the House and the Senate.  The odds of the Democrats winning all three increased for the fourth straight week to 21% from 17%.  This is the highest they have been since 8/20.  These odds are tied to the odds of the Democrats winning the House which are also at 21% signaling a victory there also means victory for the Democrats win the Presidency and the Senate.  The increase in the odds of the Democrats controlling the government means the odds of a split government decreased to 65% from 69.5%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

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