Updated Weekly Odds: Trump Continues Gains but Clinton Continues to Have a Large Lead; Republicans Increase Odds for House and Senate

Donald Trump’s recent gains in battleground states are getting reflected in the odds.  For the third straight weeks, Trump has improved his odds.  He is up this week from 26.1% to 30.9%.  This is his highest since end of July when he was at 33.7%.  That was also his all time high.

Hillary Clinton continues to have more than a two to one margin in odds however at 63.9%.

Here is a full list of the odds:

election odds 9-10-16

Looking into the odds at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government increased to its highest since tracking began five weeks ago.

For the House, the Republicans increased their odds of retaining it from 86.6% to 87.1%.  Those odds have increased for the last three weeks.

The Democrat’s odds of winning the Senate decreased from 53.4% to 53.1%.   That was driven by the Republican odds increasing from 25.2% to 25.8%.  The odds of a split Senate where the VP breaks a tie decreased to 21.1% from 21.4%.

Oddly enough, the Republican gains for the Presidency, House, and Senate did NOT result in improved odds of winning all three at once.  Those odds decreased from 25.5% to 24.5%.  This may be a reflection of voters being more open to splitting their vote across parties.   The odds of the Democrats winning all three decreased once again this time from 16% to 14%.  That is the lowest since tracking started.  As a result the odds of a split government increased to 61.5%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

election odds govt trend 9-10-16

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

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