Updated Weekly Odds: Clinton Shows Small Gain on Trump; Republican Odds of Taking House Down, Senate up

Hillary Clinton’s odds showed a small rebound of 2.5% to 59.0%.  This rebound was driven by the decline in fears of her dropping out and it came at the expense of the odds of Joe Biden (3.1% to 2.3%), Bernie Sanders (2.6% to 2.0%), and Tim Kaine (1.4% to 0.7%).

Donald Trump’s odds remained relatively flat (34.5% vs. 34.7%). He is behind Clinton 24.5%, which is the second lowest gap of the race, with the smallest being last week at 21.8%.

Here is the full list of odds:

election-odds-9-24-16

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government increased as odds of a Republican controlled government decreased.

The Republicans have always had a high probability of keeping the House took a slight dip from last week’s election season high of 90.0% to 88.6%, still the second highest it has been.

That was not the case as far as the Republican odds of winning the Senate. Republican Senate odds improved for the fourth week in a row, this time from 26.5% to 38.5%, a new high.  The Democrats still have higher odds at 40.8%, but that was down from 42.0% the prior week.  The odds of a 50/50 split dropped from 21.5% to 20.6%.

The  decrease in Republican odds of  taking Congress decreased the odds of a Republican controlled government to 28% from 31%.  That is still the second highest % this year.  The Democrat odds saw a slight increase to 12.5%, basically the odds of them winning the Congress.  The odds of a split government increased to 59.5%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

election-government-odds-9-24-16

 

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

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