Updated Electoral Forecast: Trump Continues to Make Gains on Clinton as Ohio Swings Back to Tossup

Over the last 10 days, Donald Trump has made some significant gains in Hillary Clinton’s large lead.

There were 14 polls released since the last update with 5 impacting the forecast:

  • The biggest impact came from two OH polls (Trump +4, Clinton +7) which moved state from lean D to tossup
  • NH Poll Clinton +2 moves state from likely D to lean D
  • OR Poll Clinton +13 moves state from lean D to likely D
  • CO Poll Clinton +5 moves state from solid D to likely D

The above polls moved the forecast from 316-222 to the current 311-227.  The 84 point lead is Clinton’s smallest since the beginning of August.

Here are the polls that did not move the forecast:

  • 2 FL polls (Clinton +2, tie) confirm state as tossup
  • 2 NC Polls (Clinton +4, Trump +3) confirm state as tossup
  • GA Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup
  • AZ Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup
  • NV Poll Trump +1 confirms state as tossup
  • IN Poll Trump +7 confirms state as solid R
  • PA Poll Clinton +5 confirms state as likely D

Here is the list of current tossups:

  • AZ
  • FL
  • GA
  • IA
  • NC
  • NV
  • OH

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

  • CO
  • NH
  • PA
  • VA
  • WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

electoral-trend-9-12-16

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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