Over the last 10 days, Donald Trump has made some significant gains in Hillary Clinton’s large lead.
There were 14 polls released since the last update with 5 impacting the forecast:
- The biggest impact came from two OH polls (Trump +4, Clinton +7) which moved state from lean D to tossup
- NH Poll Clinton +2 moves state from likely D to lean D
- OR Poll Clinton +13 moves state from lean D to likely D
- CO Poll Clinton +5 moves state from solid D to likely D
The above polls moved the forecast from 316-222 to the current 311-227. The 84 point lead is Clinton’s smallest since the beginning of August.
Here are the polls that did not move the forecast:
- 2 FL polls (Clinton +2, tie) confirm state as tossup
- 2 NC Polls (Clinton +4, Trump +3) confirm state as tossup
- GA Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup
- AZ Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup
- NV Poll Trump +1 confirms state as tossup
- IN Poll Trump +7 confirms state as solid R
- PA Poll Clinton +5 confirms state as likely D
Here is the list of current tossups:
- AZ
- FL
- GA
- IA
- NC
- NV
- OH
Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
- CO
- NH
- PA
- VA
- WI
The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Click here for running list of forecast changes
Click here for results from last 5 elections
Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
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