Updated Electoral Forecast:  Trump continues to cut into Clinton’s large lead with Florida moving to tossup

Although Donald Trump has been gaining ground in national polls for over a month, it has taken longer for the electoral picture to catch up (given Trump was so far behind in some of the states).  Over the last two weeks, he has slowly made up ground on Hillary Clinton’s large lead due to movement in pivotal states.

There were 12 polls released since the last update with 7 impacting the forecast:

• The biggest impact came from a FL poll with Trump +1.  That swung the state from a lean D to tossup
• AZ Poll Clinton +1 moves state from lean R to tossup
• NJ Poll Clinton +4 moves state from likely D to lean D
• CT Poll Clinton +15 moves state from likely D to solid D
• RI Poll Clinton +3 moves state from solid D to likely D
• NH Poll Clinton +5 moves state from solid D to likely D
• MO Poll Trump +9 moves state from lean R to likely R

The above polls moved the forecast from 325-213 to the current 316-222.  The 94 point lead is Clinton’s smallest since the beginning of August.

Here are the polls that did not move the forecast:

• MA poll Clinton +17 confirms state as solid D
• VT Poll Clinton +21 confirms state as solid D
• ME Poll Clinton +9 confirms state as solid D
• MD survey Clinton +29 confirms state as solid D
• ID Poll Trump +21 confirms state as solid R

Here is the list of current tossups:

• AZ
• FL
• GA
• IA
• NC
• NV

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• NH
• OH
• PA
• VA
• WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

 

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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