Updated Electoral Forecast: Post Debate, Clinton Expands Lead with Gains in FL and MI; Trump Cuts Clinton Lead in WA

9 Polls have been released in the last three days with 4 of them impacting the forecast.  It appears Clinton is getting stronger in the majority of swing states post the debate with the most important being in FL.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

  • FL Poll Clinton +4 moves state from tossup to lean D
  • WA Poll Clinton +6 moves state from solid D to likely D
  • 2 MI Polls (Clinton +5, +7) move state from lean D to likely D

The above moved the forecast from the previous 289-249 to the current 298-240.  This current 58 point lead is Clinton’s largest since 9/14 when she led by 74.

Here are the other polls:

  • Initial NE Poll Trump +27 confirms state as solid R
  • CA Poll Clinton +26 confirms state as solid D
  • MO Poll Trump +10 confirms state as solid R
  • SC Poll Trump +4 confirms state as likely R
  • NH Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as likely D

Here is the list of current tossups:

  • AZ
  • CO
  • NC

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

  • FL
  • NH
  • PA
  • VA
  • WI

Trump has asserted himself in other thought to be tossups including:

  • OH
  • IA
  • NV

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

electoral-forecast-trend-9-30-16

  • Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
  • Click here for running list of forecast changes
  • Click here for results from last 5 elections
  • Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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