For the last month, Donald Trump had been narrowing Clinton’s lead in the polls.  That gain seemed to have stopped almost 10 days ago right at 2.1%.  In fact Clinton began gaining momentum and extending her lead to 2.7%, until the weekend.  Her poll numbers began dropping, coinciding with reports about her having pneumonia.  Since then Trump has been able to close the gap to 2.0%, the lowest since July 28th.  Despite the small margin, Clinton still led in 8 out of the last 10 polls, with two of them being ties.  It will be interesting to see if she is able to widen the gap as she gets back on the campaign trail.

 

Here is a trend of the polls:

 

Here are the last 10 polls:

 

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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