Updated Weekly Odds: Trump Reverses Trend and Inches Closer to Clinton; Republican Improve Odds of Winning House, Democrats of Winning Senate Leading to Increased Likelihood of Split Government

It was an eventful week with the two candidates accusing each other of bigotry, more Clinton Foundation emails coming out raising questions about access of donors to Clinton, some confusion over the immigration policy from the Trump campaign,  new leadership asserting themselves in the Trump campaign ,and Trump beginning to air ads.  Through it all, Donald Trump was able to make up some ground for the first time in four weeks.  Trump improved from 22.3% to 23% while Clinton dropped from 72.8% to 72.2%.  The lead of 49.2% is the same as it was two weeks ago.

 

Here is a full list of the odds:

Looking into the odds at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government increased.

Democrat odds of winning the Senate increased from 51.6% to 55.9%.  The odds of the Republicans winning the Senate is now at 23.2% and the odds of a split Senate is at 20.9%.

The Republicans, for their part, increased their odds of winning the House from 83.2% to 84.7%.

The odds of neither party winning the House, Senate, and White House increased from 56% to 61%.  Although the Democrats hold the edge for winning the Presidency and the Senate, the odds of the Republicans winning all three is higher than that of the Democrats (20.5% vs. 18.5%).  This is driven by the fact that the Senate is so close.  A trump win would in all likelihood mean the Republicans also win the Senate.  Even with a Clinton win, the Democrats are unlikely take the House.

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