This post is to update the odds from last week’s post based on the market at PredictIt.org.

In the past week:

• The probability of the Democrats winning the presidency increased from 67.5% to 70.5%
• The probability of the House remaining under Republican control decreased from 83.5% to 79%.
• The probability of the Republican maintaining control of the Senate improved from 36% to 38%

What does this mean to the probability of which party controls the government.  The most likely outcome remains  a Democratic President and Senate with a Republican House  at 34.5%  although that dropped from 36.1%.

The probability of a Democratic President with a Republican House and Senate is the second most likely at 21.2%.  That is up from 20.3% last week.

The third most likely outcome is a Republican President and House with a Democratic Senate.  That likelihood is now only 14.4% down from 17.4% last week.

The probability of a divided government (where neither party has control of all three) is 82.0% down from 83.1%.

Both parties have a very small chance of sweeping all three with the Democrats now ahead of the Republicans at 9.2% to 8.9%.

Here is a look at the probabilities:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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