Hillary Clinton continued to have a strong but declining lead.

The updated forecast has Clinton leading Donald Trump 300-238. Trump has cut the lead by 12 points in the last week and by 46 over the last month.

This week the gains have come from polls in NJ, NH, and GA:

• A NJ poll showed Clinton +4.  The prior two were +7 and +11.  This shrinking lead caused the state to move from solid D to likely D
• A NH poll showed a tie after the previous Clinton +2.  That moved the state from lean D to tossup
• A GA poll had Trump +7 after the previous polls had Trump +4 and +3.  That moved GA from lean R to likely R.

Other polls merely confirmed the current status of states:

• 2 CA polls one Clinton +12 and one Clinton +24 confirmed CA as solid D
• A NY poll with Clinton +21 confirmed state as solid D
• MI poll with Clinton +4 kept MI likely D for the moment (prior polls at +10 and +11)

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

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