At the surface, there was very little change in the overall forecast in this update as Clinton continues to lead big at 300 vs. Trump’s 238.

What is interesting however is the first polls post Johnson’s nomination for the Libertarian party.

In a Poll taken in Utah, Trump has a +7 lead head to head against Clinton, but that leads shrinks to +3 once Johnson is included.  Johnson takes a significant 16 points.  That moves the state to a likely R in the forecast from a solid R.

The opposite happened in Connecticut where head to head Clinton leads Trump by 7.  That shrinks once Johnson and Stein are included to +5.  Johnson and Stein combine for 9 points.

The two moves above cancel each other mathematically to keep the overall forecast the same.

Other polls merely confirmed the current status of states:

• 3 more CA polls confirm state as solid D (Clinton +26, +19, +15)
• FL poll confirms state as lean D (Clinton +3)
• NJ poll confirms state as likely D (Clinton +15)

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

 

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