Polls from some important swing states have been released recently, two of which have influenced the forecast:

On 6/16 a VA poll showed Clinton +3 over Trump.   Combining that with a previous Clinton +4 poll pushed the state from the prior tossup to a lean D.

On 6/21  a FL poll showed Clinton +6. While 6 is a large spread that is normally classified as Likely D, combining that poll with the previous Trump +1 and Clinton +3 moved the state from a tossup to Lean D.

These two changes helped widen Clinton’s lead from 48 (293-245) to 70 (304-234).

Other polls released included:

• 6/20 UT poll Trump +9 confirms likely R
• 6/21 PA poll Clinton +3 confirms lean D
• 6/21 OH Poll Clinton +2 confirms tossup

Here’s a trend of the forecast

 

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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