Probability of a Divided Government High

Predictit.org is a  financial market for political predictions.

Some of the financial predictions include who will the Presidency, and which party will win the House and Senate.

By looking at these markets, we can draw conclusions on different probabilities.

As of today, the most likely outcome is a Democratic President and Senate with a Republican House (36.1% probability).

Two other less likely but possible scenarios are a Democratic President with a Republican House and Senate (20.3%) and a Republican President and House with a Democratic Senate (17.4%).

The probability of a divided government (where neither party has control of all three) is 83.1%

The Republicans have a higher probability (9.8%) than the Democrats (7.1%) of sweeping all three thanks to their fairly strongly hold on the House.

Here is a look at the probabilities:

govt elections 6-8.emf

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