There is a lot of debate about whether the indictment hurt or helped Rick Perry the last two weeks.  One thing is very clear: For those putting money on the elections, it hurt.  Rick Perry had the biggest drop among the top candidates moving from #8 to #15 with the probability dropping from 2.1% to 1.4%.  He peaked at 4th place on 8/2 when his probability was at 3.1%, more than double what it is now.

One of the beneficiaries seems to be fellow Texan Ted Cruz who jumps back into the top 10 at #9 from last week’s #11.  Cruz had consistently been in 10th place before being replaced by Romney back in early August.

In other moves in the top 10, Marco Rubio has now caught Jeb Bush for 2nd place.  They both shared the spot in June and July as well. Their individual probability is at 4.3%.

Hillary Clinton continues to be the big leader with a probability of 41.4%.  That number has been eroding recently, however, after having peaked at 44.4% on 8/2.

One person to keep an eye on is Martin O’Malley.  He is currently in 11th place (now ahead of more known names like Perry, Cuomo, and Jindal) and at only 1.5% probability.  His numbers have improved however each of the last three weeks.  Perhaps it’s purely a mathematical consequence of Clinton’s numbers dropping.

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