July Florida Poll

Because of the large number of electoral votes, and the fact that the margin was less than 1% in 2012, Florida will be one of the more important battles in the 2016 presidential elections.

A poll released on 7/23 shows Hillary Clinton beating the top 4 Republican candidates with the closest being Rand Paul.  
Clinton 46%     Rand Paul 42%
Clinton 47%     Jeb Bush 41%
Clinton 49%     Chris Christie 38%
Clinton 53%     Marco Rubio 39%
The Republicans on the other hand win all the races in the hypothetical head to head against Joe Biden:
Biden  38%      Jeb Bush 47%
Biden  39%      Chris Christie 48%
Biden  39%      Rand Paul 47%
Biden  43%      Rubio 46%
Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney 50.0% to 49.1% in Florida in 2012.
More details here including a poll on the Florida Governor race.

Views – 687

The odds remained unchanged this week so I thought I’d look at the candidates with the biggest changes in odds over the last 2 months.  For the full set of odds checkout my site

Most Improved:
Jeb Bush           +1.0%  (3.5% to 4.5%)
Hillary Clinton   +0.9%  (39.9% to 40.8%)
Rick Perry        +0.8%  (1.4% to 2.2%)
Mitt Romney     +0.5%  (0.9% to 1.3%)

Biggest Declines:
Chris Christie    -1.3%  (4.7% to 3.4%)
Eric Cantor       -0.5%  (0.9% to 0.4%)
Rand Paul         -0.4%  (3.5% to 3.1%)
Joe Biden         -0.4%  (2.3% to 1.9%)

There have been two additions to the odds in the last two months: Deval Patrick and Ben Carson, but both have very long odds.  250 to 1 odds and a 0.3% probability.

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For updates follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 605

July New Hampshire Poll

New Hampshire Poll of potential Republican electorate shows Rand Paul leading (14%) followed by Chris Christie (13%), Jeb Bush (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%).  Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio tied for 5th at 7%.

Interestingly, Marco Rubio moves from fifth to first for the question “Who is your second choice”
Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 74/18
Only Rand Paul is within the margin of error in a head to head contest with Clinton (46/43)
Christie, Bush, and Rubio are close behind losing by a margin of 47/42 to Clinton.
Obama beat Romney 52/46 in New Hampshire in 2012

Views – 641

News and Odds about the Presidential Elections