Updated Presidential Odds: Warren, Christie, Carson

This week, the odds changed for 7 of the top 50 candidates.

The biggest move up was by Elizabeth Warren who moved from 8th place to 6th place with her probability moving from 1.9% to 2.7%. (Odds from 35 to 1 to 25 to 1)

The biggest move down was by Chris Christie who moved from 4th place to 7th place with his probability moving from 3.4% to 2.3%. (Odds from 20 to 1 to 30 to 1)

Another candidate moving up was Ben Carson from 45th to 29th place.  He nearly doubled his odds but remains a longshot with a probability of 0.7%  (Odds 250 to 1 to 100 to 1).  He was not even showing up as a candidate in the odds a month ago.

John Kerry dropped from 19th to 23rd with his odds now at 75 to 1.

Three minor candidates moved further down:
Jim Webb from 24th to 40th now at 150 to 1
Russ Feingold from 39th to 43rd now at 200 to 1
Debbie Wasserman Shultz from 41st to 43rd at 200 to 1

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For updates on 2016 Presidential odds and polls follow me @2016ElectOdds

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July Florida Poll

Because of the large number of electoral votes, and the fact that the margin was less than 1% in 2012, Florida will be one of the more important battles in the 2016 presidential elections.

A poll released on 7/23 shows Hillary Clinton beating the top 4 Republican candidates with the closest being Rand Paul.  
Clinton 46%     Rand Paul 42%
Clinton 47%     Jeb Bush 41%
Clinton 49%     Chris Christie 38%
Clinton 53%     Marco Rubio 39%
The Republicans on the other hand win all the races in the hypothetical head to head against Joe Biden:
Biden  38%      Jeb Bush 47%
Biden  39%      Chris Christie 48%
Biden  39%      Rand Paul 47%
Biden  43%      Rubio 46%
Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney 50.0% to 49.1% in Florida in 2012.
More details here including a poll on the Florida Governor race.

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