According to an August 6 Quinnipiac poll of NJ voters, Hillary Clinton leads Chris Christie 50-42 for President in 2016.
That is the closest gap, however, with any of the Republican nominees:
54-34 over Jeb Bush
55-35 over Rand Paul
57-34 over Mike Huckabee
This is not surprising as the Democrats won New Jersey rather easily in 2012 with Obama getting 58% and Romney 41%.
Views – 790
This week’s updated odds showed movement among 6 candidates:
Hillary Clinton continued to be the top candidate and actually improved her probability from 41% to 45%.
Rick Perry improved moving into a three way tie with Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan. As of early July he was in 10th place and 7th place just last week. He seems to be capitalizing on the border crisis. His probability is at 3.1%
The biggest move was from Ben Carson who moved from being 45th end of June, to 29th last week, to 12th this week. Odds doubled as payoff moved from +10000 to +5000. Carson announced he is forming a PAC on Friday. His probability is still low at 1.3%.
Mitt Romney saw another improvement to the 10th spot and now tied with Ted Cruz. He was in the 30th spot in May and June. Perhaps it’s due to a recent poll that showed voters would vote for Romney over Obama if they could vote today, or some may now be seeing Romney as the “lovable loser”. Romeny’s probability is now at 1.6%.
Marco Rubio has dropped from a tie for second to third place, perhaps the offset to Rick Perry’s move up and Rubio’s more moderate view on Immigration reform.
Bobby Jindal saw a slight drop from a tie for 10th with Ted Cruz to 12th place as Mitt Romney moved into the 10th spot.
Views – 836
Ohio figures to be one of the more important swing states in the 2016 election (Barack Obama won it 50.7% to 47.7% in 2012, but it was Republican in 2008 with George Bush winning it 50.8% to 48.7%)
A poll of 1,366 registered voters in Ohio taken July 24-28 showed Hillary Clinton ahead of four possible Republican canadidates:
– ahead of Rand Paul by 4 (46-42)
– ahead of Jeb Bush by 11 (48-37)
– ahead of Chris Christie by 9 (46-37)
– ahead of John Kasich by 7 (47-40)
Paul is closer than other Republicans because he beats Clinton among independent voters 44 to 41. Clinton wins the independent vote against the other candidates.
Kasich, the current governor of Ohio, is running for re-election this year and depending on the poll has about a 5 point lead over Democrat Ed FitzGerald. He has a +16 net favorability in Ohio. Clinton polling ahead of him in Ohio is quite an achievement.
Views – 824