Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.24X, about 15% lower than the 1.90X high set beginning of August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats dropped to 43.9% from 44.8%. This as a result of the top 5 Democrats improving their combined odds from 1.81X to 1.75X.
The Democrats had their 4th debate and based on the odds here’s the big winners:
Elizabeth Warren: Her odds did not see a jump, but then again when you are in the lead, winning is staying ahead. She did that. Since the debates began in June, she has moved from 12.1X to 3.4X, the top increase of anybody.
Here are how to odds moved this week for all who were involved in the debate:
Hillary Clinton’s streak of 9 straight weeks of improvements finally came to an end as she dropped from 25.2X to 31.5X. That is still the highest of any non candidate.
Donald’s Trump’s odds saw another small decline, this week from 2.20X to 2.24X. This is the third straight decline and the lowest odds since mid April. His odds against the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 44.7% as their odds also dropped, from 1.78X to 1.81X.
Movements this week were a continuation of last week:
Elizabeth Warren remained the hottest name reaching yet another new high for anyone not named Trump. She improved from 3.45X to 3.32X.
For a second straight week Bernie Sanders odds tanked, with continued concerns over the heart attack. He drops from 17.9X last week to 22.1X this week. These are his lowest odds in 2 1/2 years. He was at 14.3X, but already declining, two weeks ago prior to the heart attack.
Clinton’s odds continued to rise jumping from 39.5X to 25.2X, their highest since August 2017. This is the 9th straight week of increases for Clinton and 5th straight week of large improvements. She was at 90.0X at the start of September. Both Trump and Clinton made comments this week about a possible rematch.
Republican alternatives to Trump also saw jumps with Pence improving from 48.9X to 37.3X, Haley from 53.0X to 41.9X, and Romney from 125.9X to 98.0X.
The jumps from Clinton and Trump Republican alternatives are causing some interesting distortions in relative odds. For example:
Clinton now has higher odds (25.2X) than Pete Buttigieg (26.4X)
Mike Pence has higher odds (37.3X) than Kamala Harris (38.1X)
Mitt Romney has higher odds (98.0X) than Beto O’Rourke (109.2X)
Here are the odds of all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates:
Trump’s Odds saw a small drop this week from 2.17X to 2.20X. This was the second drop in a row after the start of the impeachment inquiry. These are his lowest odds in nearly 6 months. His odds against the top 5 Democrats also decreased slightly from 44.9% to 44.7%, as their combined odds dropped by a lower amount than Trump’s (from 1.77X to 1.78X).
On the Democratic side, this was the first week in the past couple of months where Warren’s odds did not see a significant pickup. They rose from 3.50X to 3.45X, yet another new high.
The biggest mover among the top candidates was Pete Buttigieg, whose odds showed signs of life for the first time in almost 4 months. He jumped from 31.1X to 26.6X. These are his highest odds in 6 weeks and allowed him to jump over a slumping Kamala Harris. Buttigieg is “flush with cash” and looking to make his mark in Iowa. Harris’ odds dropped from 26.4X to 27.9X, her lowest since July 2017.
For the second straight week, “non candidates” saw big jumps:
Hillary Clinton had her 4th straight week of jumps from 49.9X to 39.5X. Unlike after the first jump, where there was zero news on her potential candidacy, we are now starting to see some chatter like this article suggesting she may be the beneficiary of Sanders potentially leaving the race.
The other increases, much like last week, came from Republicans as a hedge to the potential impeachment:
Mike Pence improved from 60.9X to 48.9X (86.5X two weeks ago)
Nikki Haley improved from 73.8X to 53.0X (123.3X two weeks ago)