Category Archives: Patrick 2020

Trump’s odds see another small drop; Warren’s cold streak reaches 5, as Buttigieg reaches new high and Sanders rebounds to pre heart attack odds; Patrick enters while Clinton won’t rule out a run

Donald Trump’s odds continued a recent trend of slow declines. They dropped from 2.27X to 2.29X. They have either been flat or have dropped for eight straight weeks when the odds were at 2.02X. Despite the drop, Trump’s odds against the top five Democrats actually increased to 44.1% from 43.4%, as their combined odds dropped from 1.75X to 1.80X. This a result of increases in candidates outside of the top five.

Elizabeth Warren continued her cold streak of now 5 weeks. Her odds dropped from 4.89X to 5.32X. This is her lowest since the beginning of September. Her odds are still 35% higher than Biden’s, although they were more than double just 5 weeks ago.

The two big winners from Warren’s drop continue to be Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg improved from 11.4X to 10.3X. This is yet another high, and he has improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 31.1X at the start of the streak, and has nearly tripled his odds over that span. One poll this week showed Buttigieg to be at the top of Iowa.

Bernie Sanders improved from 12.1X to 11.2X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks (since his heart attack) from 22.1X (doubling his odds). These are his highest odds in nine weeks.

There was some big movement outside of the top 5 Democrats this week:

One week after skyrocketing, Michael Bloomberg’s odds saw a pullback, dropping from 16.1X to 23.8X. This is still way above where he was two weeks ago at 88.4X. He still has not made a decision on whether he is running, but that is likely days away according to Axios.

Hillary Clinton’s odds improved from 29.2X to 26.0X as she refuses to rule out running.

Deval Patrick made it official and announced he is running. His odds shot up from 260.7X to 112.6X, his highest in over 6 months, putting him in 15th overall, putting him just behind Klobuchar and Harris but ahead of Booker and Castro. It will be interesting to see who he hurts, if he starts gaining traction. One the one hand he is more moderate and may pull from a Buttigieg or Bloomberg. On the other hand he is well known in the northeast which may take primary votes from the likes of Warren.

Below are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the top candidates:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 22

Trump’s Odds Continue to Inch up; Bill Kristol Wants Haley to Challenge Trump; Deval Patrick’s Lack of Name Recognition isn’t New; Hickenlooper “Leaning Strongly” Towards Running

Donald Trump’s odds improved slightly from 2.52X to 2.50X.  This is the highest he has been in 7 weeks.  He has been out campaigning for Republicans the past few weeks and seems to be energized each day at his rallies.

“Establishment” Republicans have been looking for a challenger to Trump in 2020.  Bill Kristol would like to talk Nikki Haley into it.   Her odds increased slightly to 57.7X from 58.0X.  She is in 18th place overall and third among the Republicans behind Trump and Pence.

Deval Patrick doesn’t have the same name recognition as other Democrats but many insiders still believe he can pull it off. His odds improved this week from 65.2X to 61.9X, putting him in 19th place up from 22nd. He has bounced around between 14th place and 32nd place this election cycle.

John Hickenlooper is “leaning strongly” towards running. His odds improved from 68.8X to 65.6X, and he moved from 28th place to 24th place.  These are his best odds in 12 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on twitter

Views – 94

Trump’s Odds Remain at All Time Highs; Warren Helped by Trump’s Attacks; Booker and Patrick to Visit TX

Donald Trump’s odds remained at 2.40X for the second straight week, an all time high. That is nearly 5 times the next closest competitor and 6.5 times better than the next closest Republican, Mike Pence.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds improved to 14.5X from 14.7X.  That was enough to have her jump over Joe Biden into 4th place overall.  She seems to be Trump’s favorite target, which of course helps her on the left. She had been as high as 2nd place for a few weeks back in February.

Cory Booker is considered another front runner for the Democrats.  His odds dropped slightly from 30.2X to 31.3X.  Those are his lowest odds of the cycle.  He is currently in 9th place.  He peaked at 19.6X and 5th place shortly after the 2016 election.  Regardless of the odds, his actions seem to indicate he will be running, including planning to speak at a fundraising dinner in TX in September.

Speaking of TX and Democrats, another candidate, Deval Patrick will be there campaigning for Democrats this weekend. Patrick’s odds improved this week from 54.7X to 52.5X moving him from 22nd to 21st place.  This is the highest he has been in 6 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

Views – 151