Category Archives: Patrick 2020

Trump stays at all time highs; Bloomberg jumps Sanders for second Overall, although Sanders still leads in likelihood to win Democratic nomination; Klobuchar passes Warren after strong New Hampshire results

Donald Trump’s odds remained at their all time high of 1.59X this week. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dropped slightly however from 57.5% to 56.6% as the odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 2.14X to 2.07X, a function of those outside the top 5 dropping in odds or dropping out all together (Yang, Patrick, Bennett).

For the second straight week the candidate making the most dramatic improvement near the top is Michael Bloomberg. His odds improved from 8.0X to 5.16X, his new all time high. This was enough for him to jump Bernie Sanders for second place overall. His rise had now led to some Twitter jabs between Bloomberg and Trump, a fellow longtime New Yorker. We won’t truly know about his candidacy until Super Tuesday (3/3) which will hold the first primaries he is competing in.

Bernie Sanders odds saw a small dip from 5.30X to 5.67X. These are now his lowest odds in 4 weeks. Although he drops to third overall in the odds to be President, he is still in second place to become the Democratic candidate.

With Bloomberg asserting himself as the moderate candidate and Sanders as the progressive, the odds for the majority of the other leaders dropped:

  • Biden dropped from 12.7X to 22.3X, his lowest in over two years. He is still in 4th place overall. He needs a win in NV and SC to have any shot at the nomination.
  • Buttigieg dropped from 15.2X to 22.7X which is still higher than pre Iowa (45.7X). He is still in 5th place overall.
  • Warren dropped from 38.3X to 93.2X, her all time low. She dropped from 6th place to 8th place falling behind Amy Klobuchar and Hillary Clinton.

Amy Klobuchar rose from 10th place to 6th place as her odds improved from 122.7X to 43.9X. These are her highest odds in 11 months. She finished an impressive 3rd place in New Hampshire. Like many that have risen from outside the top 5 to the lead group, she will now need to hold up to the added scrutiny.

Here is a trend of the top candidates and the odds of the top 20:

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Trump’s odds see another small drop; Warren’s cold streak reaches 5, as Buttigieg reaches new high and Sanders rebounds to pre heart attack odds; Patrick enters while Clinton won’t rule out a run

Donald Trump’s odds continued a recent trend of slow declines. They dropped from 2.27X to 2.29X. They have either been flat or have dropped for eight straight weeks when the odds were at 2.02X. Despite the drop, Trump’s odds against the top five Democrats actually increased to 44.1% from 43.4%, as their combined odds dropped from 1.75X to 1.80X. This a result of increases in candidates outside of the top five.

Elizabeth Warren continued her cold streak of now 5 weeks. Her odds dropped from 4.89X to 5.32X. This is her lowest since the beginning of September. Her odds are still 35% higher than Biden’s, although they were more than double just 5 weeks ago.

The two big winners from Warren’s drop continue to be Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg improved from 11.4X to 10.3X. This is yet another high, and he has improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 31.1X at the start of the streak, and has nearly tripled his odds over that span. One poll this week showed Buttigieg to be at the top of Iowa.

Bernie Sanders improved from 12.1X to 11.2X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks (since his heart attack) from 22.1X (doubling his odds). These are his highest odds in nine weeks.

There was some big movement outside of the top 5 Democrats this week:

One week after skyrocketing, Michael Bloomberg’s odds saw a pullback, dropping from 16.1X to 23.8X. This is still way above where he was two weeks ago at 88.4X. He still has not made a decision on whether he is running, but that is likely days away according to Axios.

Hillary Clinton’s odds improved from 29.2X to 26.0X as she refuses to rule out running.

Deval Patrick made it official and announced he is running. His odds shot up from 260.7X to 112.6X, his highest in over 6 months, putting him in 15th overall, putting him just behind Klobuchar and Harris but ahead of Booker and Castro. It will be interesting to see who he hurts, if he starts gaining traction. One the one hand he is more moderate and may pull from a Buttigieg or Bloomberg. On the other hand he is well known in the northeast which may take primary votes from the likes of Warren.

Below are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the top candidates:

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Trump’s Odds Continue to Inch up; Bill Kristol Wants Haley to Challenge Trump; Deval Patrick’s Lack of Name Recognition isn’t New; Hickenlooper “Leaning Strongly” Towards Running

Donald Trump’s odds improved slightly from 2.52X to 2.50X.  This is the highest he has been in 7 weeks.  He has been out campaigning for Republicans the past few weeks and seems to be energized each day at his rallies.

“Establishment” Republicans have been looking for a challenger to Trump in 2020.  Bill Kristol would like to talk Nikki Haley into it.   Her odds increased slightly to 57.7X from 58.0X.  She is in 18th place overall and third among the Republicans behind Trump and Pence.

Deval Patrick doesn’t have the same name recognition as other Democrats but many insiders still believe he can pull it off. His odds improved this week from 65.2X to 61.9X, putting him in 19th place up from 22nd. He has bounced around between 14th place and 32nd place this election cycle.

John Hickenlooper is “leaning strongly” towards running. His odds improved from 68.8X to 65.6X, and he moved from 28th place to 24th place.  These are his best odds in 12 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

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