The odds came back with Donald Trump out of the hospital with a dramatic drop for the President. Trump’s odds dropped from 2.08X to 2.82X, his lowest since March 2019. Biden’s odds improved from 1.79X to 1.44X, his best odds to date (Previous high of 1.56X on 8/1)
The implied odds for Biden are now at 66.2% compared to 53.8%.
Updating the Predictit.org odds, Biden improved from 0.64 to 0.66 while Trump improves slightly from 0.37 to 0.38. Trump’s improvement came from Pence who dropped from Pence dropping from .05 to .02. Below is some of the previous Predictit.org odds.
9/26: Odds for Trump were 0.57 Biden, 0.47 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.05 Harris. These would imply odds of 54.8% for Biden, close to our implied odds from last week of 53.8%.
9/30 after the Presidential debate: 0.62 Biden, 0.42 Trump, 0.01 Pence, 0.02 Harris (Harris drops as Biden doesn’t flat on his face at debate?). The implied odds for Biden go up to 59.6%
10/2 Trump announces he has COVID and later gets admitted to Walter Reed: 0.64 Biden, 0.37 Trump, 0.05 Pence (hedge on Trump not finishing campaign), and Harris 0.04 (hedge on Biden getting COVID?). The implied odds of JUST Biden vs. Trump are now at 63.3%. Odds of the 4 combined tilt 61.8% Democrats.
The forecasts are now being updated more regularly. 5 of the 7 models moved in Biden’s direction while two stayed flat. The forecast is now at 337 Biden and 201 Trump, an all time high for Biden.. The models continued to converge and over half of them actually have the same forecast of 333 to 206. Here are the different models:
Keeping it simple: (exactly the same as last week( For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Iowa, and Georgia, and make up for being behind in Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The two states most likely to flip have are currently forecast at Trump +0.7% in Georgia and Biden +0.5% for Ohio. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 3)
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