Joe Biden saw another small improvement in his odds this week from 1.80X to 1.79X. This is his third straight increase. He was at 1.90X four weeks ago.

Conversely, Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop from 2.05X to 2.08X. These are his lowest odds in 5 weeks.

As a result, the implied odds for Joe Biden moved up slightly from 53.2% to 53.8%.

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

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Three model changes have been made this week, but we are still where we were last week, 323 Biden and 215 Trump. The average of the forecasts has been a fairly tight range in the last eight weeks with Biden winning with with a high of 328 and a low of 323. That said, we are at an 8 week high for Trump. Details below:

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Texas, Iowa, and Georgia, and make up for being behind in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. There was a big change this week as it appears Ohio might be moving towards Biden (by the thinnest of margins) The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 3)

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