After five straight weeks of drops, Joe Biden finally reversed his odds. They improved from 1.90X to 1.81X. These are his best odds in 3 weeks.

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 1.94X to 2.04X, his worst in 3 weeks.

Implied odds for Biden now at 53.0%, since mid March, Biden’s implied odds have ranged between 45.8% (5/16) and 62.4% (8/1)

Here’s the overall odds and trend:

There were three changes in the electoral forecasts that ended up cancelling each other. The forecast from the Cook Political Report was improved for Trump by 14 Electoral Votes while the Economist (+2) and FiveThirtyEight (+9) both improved for Biden. Net net we are still at Biden 324 and Trump 214.

Keeping it simple: For Trump to win, he will need to keep the leads he has in Iowa, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio and make up for being behind in North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The only change from last week is Texas looks to be more in play than Iowa for Biden. The only way the electoral projections show Trump in the lead, is for him to lead in the polls for 8 of these 9 states (He currently leads in 5)

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